Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Combining experts' judgments: comparison of algorithmic methods using synthetic data.
Expert judgment (or expert elicitation) is a formal process for eliciting judgments from subject-matter experts about the value of a decision-relevant quantity. Judgments in the form of subjective probability distributions are obtained from several experts, raising the question how best to combine information from multiple experts. A number of algorithmic approaches have been proposed, of which...
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Introduction Simulation models are frequently used to evaluate the effects of the energy and other economic sectors on the environment, safety, and other areas of concern. In many important contexts, such as risks of global climate change and risks of accident at nuclear power plants, key model parameters cannot be empirically estimated, and so values are obtained by expert judgment. While it s...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Risk Analysis
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0272-4332
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01833.x